Illertissen vs Augsburg II
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<html> <head> <title>Illertissen vs Augsburg II – Tactical Preview, Odds and Betting Insight</title> <meta name="description" content="Data-led preview: Illertissen face Augsburg II in the Regionalliga Bayern. Trends, tactics, odds, and key players to watch."> </head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>Illertissen host FC Augsburg II at Vöhlin-Stadion on 19 September, with both sides trending toward high-event games early in the campaign. The supplied league tables place Illertissen mid-pack and Augsburg II toward the bottom, a contrast to some external chatter. With seven to eight matches played, trends are forming: both teams score and concede above the league norm.</p> <h3>Form and Motivation</h3> <p>Illertissen arrive with a morale-boosting 1–0 away win at Vilzing, while Augsburg II suffered consecutive defeats, including a late collapse at Ansbach (from 1–2 up to 3–2 down at 90’). Illertissen’s overall points output is modest at home, but Augsburg II’s away profile is worse, with 0.60 ppg and a leaky 2.60 GA per game.</p> <h3>Goals, Goals, Goals</h3> <p>Totals jump off the page. Illertissen’s matches average 3.71 total goals; Augsburg II’s 3.75 (league 3.01). Over 2.5 lands in 86% of Illertissen matches (100% at home) and 75% for Augsburg II (80% away). BTTS stands at 71% and 75% respectively. This is classic Regionalliga chaos: transitional opportunities, pressing errors, and set-piece volatility.</p> <h3>Timing: Why the Second Half Matters</h3> <p>Augsburg II skew heavily to second-half action: 64% of their goals scored and 63% conceded arrive after the break, and away from home it’s 71% and 69%. They’ve also allowed seven goals in the 76–90’ band (five away), underlining late-game fragility. Illertissen, meanwhile, show first-half defensive wobbles at home, but the match-up profile still tilts toward more second-half production overall.</p> <h3>Game State Dynamics</h3> <p>Illertissen collect 2.25 ppg when they score first, yet 0.00 when they concede first—extreme game-state sensitivity. Augsburg II defend leads poorly (17% lead-defending rate), which explains frequent late concessions. Combined, this supports a live-ops angle: expect swings and value on in-play overs and Illertissen late markets if the hosts are chasing.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p>Illertissen’s veteran forward Tobias Rühle has been on the scoresheet recently and leads transitions effectively, while Yannick Glessing contributes direct running and end product. Augsburg II’s names are less defined in the dataset, typical of a reserve setup rotating academy talent. Their threat tends to be collective and transitional rather than built around one talisman—useful for BTTS and overs, less so for clean-sheet or under angles.</p> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>Expect Illertissen to try to control territory early but leave lanes in behind, with Augsburg II looking to spring counters through quick wide combinations. Set-pieces could be decisive—Augsburg II’s late defensive shakiness makes them vulnerable to second-phase balls in the closing quarter-hour. If Illertissen go behind, their high ppg when scoring first and zero when conceding first suggests a binary dynamic: either seize control early or push numbers forward, increasing shot volume and risk defensively (again favoring overs).</p> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <ul> <li>Over 2.5 @ 1.67 looks fair-to-strong value versus >75% combined hit-rates.</li> <li>BTTS Yes @ 1.67 aligns with both sides’ 70%+ profiles.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half 2nd @ 2.05 is a standout based on Augsburg II’s second-half bias and late GA.</li> <li>HT Draw @ 2.30 carries value from Augsburg II’s 80% away HT draws, but sample caution applies.</li> <li>Illertissen Win @ 1.91 is acceptable given Augsburg II’s away PPG and late collapses, though Illertissen’s home splits temper confidence.</li> </ul> <h3>Final Word</h3> <p>This fixture profiles as open and momentum-driven. With Augsburg II regularly involved in second-half goal swings and Illertissen’s matches reliably clearing the 2.5 line, totals lead the betting card. Monitor confirmed lineups and any news of first-team drops for Augsburg; otherwise, expect a frenetic second half with chances at both ends. A 2–1 home win is a realistic small-stake correct-score angle.</p> </body> </html>
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