Greuther Fürth II vs Wacker Burghausen

<div> <h2>Greuther Fürth II vs Wacker Burghausen: Form, Trends and Value Plays</h2> <p>Greuther Fürth II welcome Wacker Burghausen in Fürth with the hosts under pressure to reverse a dismal home trend, while the visitors arrive on an upward curve and with squad continuity. Market prices make Burghausen slight road favorites, and the underlying numbers largely support that stance.</p> <h3>Home Woes Define Fürth II</h3> <p>Fürth II’s home returns are stark: 0.20 points per game, no wins in five, and just 0.80 goals scored per match. They’ve conceded first in 80% of home fixtures and have not clawed back a result after going behind. Game-state metrics are particularly poor at the training ground: lead-defending rate at home sits at 0% and equalizing rate at 0%—a toxic mix in a league where protecting an advantage is often decisive.</p> <h3>Burghausen’s Profile: Stable, Structured, and Strong Late</h3> <p>Wacker Burghausen’s season profile is that of a top-four side: 2.00 PPG overall with a good goals balance (2.00 for, 1.09 against). Their last eight matches tally 16 points, placing them second in the form table. Notably, Wacker finish games strongly—64% of their goals arrive after the interval—while their overall lead-defending rate is an elite 78%. Away form has been mixed (1.20 PPG), but they’ve scored in every away match and lead at halftime in 60% of road games, suggesting a repeatable template: strike first and manage the state.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup and Goal Flow</h3> <p>Fürth II often find their way into games late, with both goals for and against heavily clustered in the final quarter-hour. Burghausen share a second-half bias—dangerous when the game loosens. Expect Wacker to press early and target the channels, testing a Fürth back line that concedes many crucial first goals. If Wacker edge ahead, their game management advantages should carry weight.</p> <h3>Key Personnel and News</h3> <p>Reports indicate Fürth II are without N. Körber (shoulder) and have otherwise maintained a similar squad to last season. Burghausen arrive free of major injuries. Continuity favors Wacker’s structure and defensive organization, while Fürth’s young, development-oriented group leans volatile. Weather in Fürth should be benign—cool and partly cloudy—offering a neutral stage for a high-tempo contest.</p> <h3>Markets to Watch</h3> <ul> <li><strong>Away DNB (1.72):</strong> With Fürth’s home PPG near zero and Wacker’s strong form, the draw-no-bet safety net offers the best blend of edge and protection.</li> <li><strong>Away to Score First (1.80):</strong> Aligns with Fürth conceding first in 80% at home and Wacker’s 60% rate of opening the scoring away.</li> <li><strong>BTTS Yes (1.57):</strong> Fürth’s home BTTS rate is 80% and they rarely blank; Wacker’s profile supports exchanges, especially as the match progresses.</li> <li><strong>Second Half Highest Scoring (2.00):</strong> Both teams peak after halftime by the numbers, with significant late activity between minutes 76–90.</li> </ul> <h3>Scoreline Lean and Risk-Reward</h3> <p>Fürth’s most frequent home result is 1-2—three of five home games—mapping cleanly to how these sides profile. The 1-2 correct score at 9.50 offers speculative value, consistent with a game where Wacker get in front and withstand a late push.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>The statistical spine of this fixture points against Fürth’s home reliability and toward Wacker’s ability to secure a positive outcome, particularly if they score first. The Oracle’s card prioritizes Wacker DNB and Away First Goal, with BTTS and a second-half bias as complementary angles. Barring an outlier home performance from Fürth II, Burghausen should leave with something—and likely all three points.</p> </div>