Illertissen vs Bayreuth
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<html> <head><title>Illertissen vs Bayreuth – Regionalliga Bayern Betting Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Illertissen vs Bayreuth: Late Surge Hosts vs Fading Visitors</h2> <p>Vöhlin-Stadion hosts a top-four vs bottom-six clash as fourth-placed Illertissen welcome 13th-placed Bayreuth. With Illertissen pushing to consolidate their upper-table status and Bayreuth trying to halt a three-game skid, the matchup offers clear second-half dynamics that shape the betting card.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Illertissen arrive in superior shape: 2.00 points per game across the last eight (up 16% on their season), with goals against trending down to 1.25. Recent results show resilience—late equalisers and winners away at Schwaben and Würzburger. Bayreuth’s slide is pronounced: 0.63 PPG across the last eight and three straight losses, including home defeats to Ansbach and Aubstadt.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Illertissen’s home profile (1.63 PPG, 1.75 GF/1.50 GA) is solid if not spectacular, yet they routinely produce watchable home matches (3.25 total goals per game). Bayreuth away are dogged but limited at 1.00 PPG, drawing 57% of their trips and carrying 0% away clean sheets, a sign they almost always give you a chance.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup and Goal Timing</h3> <p>The real story is after halftime. Illertissen score 63% of their goals in the second half and spike dramatically late (12 goals from 76–90). Bayreuth concede 68% of their goals in the second half overall—and a striking 80% of their away concessions after the break. Add a meagre 14% away lead-defending rate and this tilts strongly towards the hosts owning the final 45.</p> <p>First halves can be cagey: Bayreuth away often reach halftime drawing or even leading (HT lead/draw 72% combined). That profile aligns with Illertissen’s preferred script—feel their way into the game and turn the screws late with fresh legs and front-line rotation.</p> <h3>Players and Patterns to Watch</h3> <p>Tobias Rühle’s movement between the lines has generated timely goals this autumn, while Yannick Glessing’s directness (notably the brace vs Bayern II) gives Illertissen explosiveness in transition. From the bench, Daniel Gerstmayer has contributed late. Bayreuth have had sporadic scorers—Bucher, Scheder, Krupa—but their collective output remains a modest 1.0 goal per game.</p> <h3>Statistical Edges vs Market Pricing</h3> <ul> <li>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half at even money is the clearest value given Illertissen’s 2nd-half goal share (63%) and Bayreuth’s 2nd-half concession profile (68% overall, 80% away).</li> <li>Second Half Winner – Illertissen around 1.91 leverages Bayreuth’s inability to protect away leads (14% lead defending).</li> <li>BTTS Yes at 1.67 benefits from Illertissen’s 78% BTTS rate overall and Bayreuth’s 71% BTTS away with 0% away clean sheets.</li> <li>HT/FT Draw/Illertissen at 4.75 fits the pattern: Bayreuth competitive early, hosts overpower late.</li> </ul> <h3>Scoreline Projection</h3> <p>A 2-1 home win threads the needle: it respects Bayreuth’s ability to nick a goal (they rarely keep away clean sheets) yet mirrors Illertissen’s late-game superiority. The exact score at 8.50 is a reasonable flyer that neatly aligns with the BTTS and second-half angles.</p> <h3>Risk Factors</h3> <p>Illertissen’s home equalising rate sits at 0% this season—if Bayreuth grab the first goal, the hosts’ pattern isn’t perfect for a comeback before halftime. Bayreuth’s draw-heavy away record also creates push risk on handicaps. That is why the best value lives in second-half markets rather than heavy pre-match moneyline exposure.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Lean hard into second-half markets. Even at even money, “2nd Half Highest Scoring” is underpriced. Pair it with “Second Half Winner – Illertissen” and add BTTS for coverage. For a higher-priced angle, Draw/Illertissen in HT/FT is live given Bayreuth’s early solidity and chronic late fades.</p> </body> </html>
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