Greifswalder FC vs Eilenburg
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<html> <head><title>Greifswalder FC vs Eilenburg – Betting Preview, Odds & Analysis</title></head> <body> <h3>Match Context</h3> <p>Greifswalder FC host FC Eilenburg in the Regionalliga Nordost with both sides desperate for points, albeit from very different starting points. Greifswalder are trending upward after a spirited 3-3 against title-chasing Carl Zeiss Jena and a statement 2-1 away win at Altglienicke. Eilenburg arrive in a slump: 12 league matches without a victory and the worst away defensive record among the strugglers.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <ul> <li>Greifswalder: Last 8 points per game improved (+11% on season). Unbeaten in two, with 5 goals scored in their last two matches.</li> <li>Eilenburg: 12-match winless run; last 8 ppg 0.38. Five losses in their last eight and late concessions remain a problem.</li> </ul> <h3>Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Greifswalder’s home profile (1.00 ppg; 1.33 GF, 1.50 GA) is modest but steady. Eilenburg’s road numbers are the red flag: 0.43 ppg, 1.14 GF, and a heavy 2.57 GA away. They’ve kept zero away clean sheets and their away matches average 3.71 total goals, driven by defensive frailty and game-state chasing.</p> <h3>Tactical Outlook</h3> <p>Expect Greifswalder to be on the front foot early, where they’ve scored 75% of their home goals in the first half. Eilenburg, who often concede in both halves, will likely sit compact and hope to counter through runners like William Kallenbach, with Tom Weiß profiting from late chaos. Greifswalder’s recent scorers—David Vogt (a 90’ winner at Altglienicke), Soufian Benyamina, and J. Richardson—indicate multiple threats across the front line and from late-arriving midfielders.</p> <h3>Key Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>Eilenburg away goals conceded: 2.57 per game; 0% away clean sheets.</li> <li>Eilenburg away Over 2.5: 71%; BTTS away: 71%.</li> <li>Greifswalder home Over 1.5 (match total): 100%.</li> <li>Lead-defending: Eilenburg away 0% when leading; Greifswalder home 33%—points to potential equalizers and late swings.</li> </ul> <h3>Situational Play and Late Goals</h3> <p>Eilenburg’s lead-defending rate (overall 17%, away 0%) and time spent trailing (43% away) underline their inability to manage game states. Greifswalder have shown late scoring through Vogt and steady set-piece threat, while Eilenburg’s 76–90 minute profile (both scoring and conceding) increases the probability of a lively finish.</p> <h3>Odds and Value Angles</h3> <p>The market has Greifswalder as a 1.60 favorite—about right but still playable considering the form split. The sharper angles lie in goals markets tied to Eilenburg’s defensive away profile. Home Team Total Over 1.5 at 1.62 fits the matchup better than a heavy handicap because Greifswalder’s lead-retention is shaky. Over 2.5 at 1.70 is supported by Eilenburg’s 71% away hit rate for that line. BTTS Yes at 1.67 is marginally shorter than ideal, but the visitors’ 71% BTTS away keeps it in the staking plan.</p> <h3>Injury/News & Conditions</h3> <p>No major injuries reported for either side, with stable lineups anticipated. Cool, cloudy conditions (7–10°C) are typical for Greifswald and should favor the hosts’ familiarity. No recent coaching changes are expected to influence tactical identity this week.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>The Oracle projects a Greifswalder win in a game with scoring opportunities at both ends. Eilenburg’s away defense and inability to protect leads tilt the match strongly to the home team, while their tendency to nick a goal keeps BTTS and overs in play.</p> <h4>Best Bets</h4> <ul> <li>Greifswalder Team Total Over 1.5 (1.62)</li> <li>Greifswalder to Win (1.60)</li> <li>Over 2.5 Goals (1.70)</li> <li>BTTS Yes (1.67)</li> </ul> <h4>Correct Score Lean</h4> <p>Greifswalder 2-1 (6.50) – aligns with the hosts’ edge plus Eilenburg’s strong BTTS-away tendency.</p> </body> </html>
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