Altglienicke vs Hertha BSC II
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<html> <head> <title>Altglienicke vs Hertha BSC II: Match Preview, Odds & Betting Analysis</title> </head> <body> <h2>Altglienicke vs Hertha BSC II — Regionalliga Nordost Betting Preview</h2> <p>Date: Sunday, 23 November 2025 | Venue: Greater Berlin area (Bonava-Arena/Spree-Arena) | Kick-off: 14:00 local</p> <h3>Context and Stakes</h3> <p>Altglienicke enter Round 16 in 4th place with 27 points, pushing to consolidate a top-four position. Hertha BSC II, 11th with 18 points, have steadied recently but continue to show a stark home-away split. With no significant injury or suspension news reported pre-match, both sides are expected to field strong lineups.</p> <h3>Form and Tactical Identity</h3> <p>Altglienicke’s profile at home is built on structure and defensive discipline. They concede just 0.88 goals per game at home and keep clean sheets in 50% of those matches. They are not fast starters—62% of home matches go in 0-0 at the break—but they grow into games, scoring 82% of their home goals after half-time.</p> <p>Hertha II, by contrast, are youthful and streaky—capable of bursts at home, but far less incisive on their travels. Away they average 0.71 goals for and 1.86 against. The away fail-to-score rate sits at 43%, and they defend leads poorly (away lead-defending only 25%), a classic marker of an inexperienced side trying to manage game states under pressure.</p> <h3>Recent Results and Momentum</h3> <ul> <li>Altglienicke: battled to a 2-2 at Chemnitzer, fell 1-2 at home to Greifswald, and won 1-0 away at Magdeburg II. The goals have dried somewhat (1.0 per game in last eight), but the defensive platform remains credible.</li> <li>Hertha II: consecutive clean sheets (1-0 Luckenwalde away, 1-0 Hallescher home) suggest some defensive tightening and better out-of-possession structure. Yet the sample is small, and their away scoring deficit persists.</li> </ul> <h3>Key Numbers That Matter</h3> <ul> <li>HT 0-0 at Alt home: 62%. Average home first goal minute: 67.</li> <li>Hertha away: 0.71 GF; 43% fail to score; 1.86 GA.</li> <li>Alt home clean sheets: 50%; lead-defending: 80%.</li> <li>Hertha away lead-defending: 25%; equalizing rate: 25%.</li> </ul> <h3>Matchup Dynamics</h3> <p>Expect Altglienicke to feel this out early, trust their shape, and use set pieces and repeated territory to create second-half pressure. The young Hertha II side should find phases of possession, but their away chance creation has been sparse, and their tendency to concede early periods of control invites Alt to step higher as the match wears on. On a cold, potentially damp surface, muscle memory and game management favor the hosts.</p> <h3>Odds and Market View</h3> <p>Markets price Altglienicke at 1.67 ML, roughly a 60% implied probability—fair. The sharper edges lie elsewhere:</p> <ul> <li>BTTS No at 2.10 rates well versus Hertha’s 43% away FTS and Alt’s 50% home CS.</li> <li>First-half Asian Under 1.0 at 2.20 directly exploits Alt’s 62% HT 0-0 rate and slow scoring profile.</li> <li>Alt Win to Nil at 3.25 outpaces the historical home “win to nil” hit-rate (37.5%) and Hertha’s away output.</li> <li>Second-half winner Alt at 2.00 fits the late-goal tilt (82% of Alt’s home goals post-HT) and Hertha’s shaky lead retention.</li> <li>Under 2.5 at 2.15 correlates with the first-half suppression and Hertha’s limited away attack.</li> </ul> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <p>For Altglienicke, Jann-Christopher Nietfeld is a dependable focal point (including penalties), with Elidon Qenaj offering late-running threat—consistent with Alt’s second-half scoring trend. For Hertha II, veteran Änis Ben-Hatira has provided recent sparks, while Tim Hoffmann’s winner at Luckenwalde underscores their growing willingness to grind.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s View</h3> <p>With Hertha II’s away scoring profile and Altglienicke’s home defensive ceiling, this shapes as a controlled home performance. The first half should be cagey; the second favors Alt. The best values sit on BTTS No and first-half unders, with a sprinkle on Alt win to nil and second-half winner.</p> </body> </html>
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