Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar

<div> <h2>Heracles vs AZ Alkmaar: Data screams away goals at the Asito</h2> <p>Round 5 of the Eredivisie brings a lopsided statistical matchup in Almelo. Heracles arrive bottom with four defeats from four and a league-worst defensive record, while AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten (W2 D1) and brimming with confidence behind a red-hot Troy Parrott. Weather looks ideal (~25°C, partly cloudy), so conditions won’t slow either side.</p> <h3>Form and context</h3> <p>Heracles’ early metrics are alarming: 0.25 goals scored per game and 3.50 conceded—both extreme outliers against league averages (1.65 GF/G and 1.65 GA/G). They’ve failed to score in three of four and have yet to register a point. The sequence reads simply: four straight losses. AZ’s start is the inverse: seven points from nine, 2.33 goals scored per game, 1.00 conceded, and a mere 3% of match time spent trailing.</p> <h3>Venue split: Heracles home vs AZ away</h3> <p>Heracles’ lone home outing ended 1–4 to NEC. Even allowing for small-sample caveats, conceding four at home is a red flag. AZ’s away split shows a professional profile: 2.00 PPG, 1.00 GA/G, and a 50% clean-sheet rate on the road. They’ve shown the ability to control away matches, spending 88% of time level and only 5% trailing.</p> <h3>Flow and timing: second-half story</h3> <p>If there’s a defining pattern, it’s Heracles’ late collapse. They’ve conceded eight second-half goals (57% of total GA) and five in the 76–90 segment alone. AZ’s away goals skew after the interval (67% in the 2nd half), a perfect overlay for the “late AZ pressure vs tired Heracles defense” narrative. That underpins two angles: AZ to win the second half and second half to be the highest scoring.</p> <h3>Situational metrics: who handles game states?</h3> <p>Heracles have a leadDefendingRate of 0% and a 0.00 PPG when conceding first. They also trail for 61% of game time—forced to chase matches—yet own an equalizing rate of 0%. By contrast, AZ defend leads at 67% and average 1.00 PPG even when conceding first. The gulf in game management is stark.</p> <h3>Team news and selection</h3> <p>Heracles’ attacking depth is compromised: Jeff Reine-Adélaïde and Mario Engels remain out, and Sava Cestić is a doubt. Expect Luka Kulenović to lead the line, with Sem Scheperman the primary midfield conduit. For AZ, no major new injuries are reported. Parrott is the headline act, supported by Mijnans, with Denso Kasius and Mees de Wit offering thrust from full-back. Wouter Goes and Alexandre Penetra anchor a backline that’s been composed away from home.</p> <h3>Key match-ups</h3> <ul> <li>Troy Parrott vs Heracles centre-backs (Mirani/Mesík): Parrott has three league goals in two and thrives on runs across the near post; Heracles have struggled with box protection and set-phase tracking.</li> <li>Kasius/De Wit vs Heracles’ wide defenders: Heracles concede significant volume in the 61–90’ window as concentration and legs fade; AZ’s full-backs can exploit that with overlaps and cutbacks.</li> <li>AZ midfield control (Clasie/K. Smit) vs Scheperman/Bruns: Expect AZ to dominate territory, compressing Heracles into their own third for stretches.</li> </ul> <h3>Markets and prices: where’s the value?</h3> <p>The away win at 1.53 is justified by form, but the sharper angle is AZ team total over 1.5 at the same 1.53. Heracles have conceded two or more in all four matches, and AZ average 2.33 per game. Add Parrott anytime at 2.00—given Heracles’ 3.50 GA/G and the Irishman’s finishing streak—and you have a coherent, correlated portfolio. For higher yield, “AZ win to nil” at 2.80 is supported by Heracles’ 75% fail-to-score rate, though note their single home match did feature a goal for the hosts.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>Everything points toward AZ asserting control and powering through the second half. Expect chances late as Heracles tire. A controlled 0–2 or 0–3 away success fits the data profile, with Parrott central to the outcome.</p> </div>