Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head> <title>Feyenoord vs PEC Zwolle: Data-Driven Preview, Odds and Bets</title> </head> <body> <h2>Context: Title Chaser vs Counter-Punching Underdog</h2> <p>Feyenoord welcome PEC Zwolle to De Kuip with the mood around Rotterdam confident and demanding. The hosts sit second with 31 points (10-1-3), chasing PSV, while PEC arrive 13th on 16 points (4-4-6). Previews across Dutch outlets frame this as a “must-win” for Feyenoord and a “free hit” for PEC: anything they can snatch is a bonus.</p> <h3>Form and Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Feyenoord at home: 2.14 PPG, 2.14 GF and 1.43 GA per game. PEC away: 0.86 PPG, 1.71 GF and a porous 2.71 GA per game. The raw environment screams goals: Feyenoord’s total goals average 3.71 per match, PEC’s 3.43, and PEC away games blow up to 4.43 on average.</p> <p>Crucially, PEC’s away profile is a goals magnet: Over 3.5 has landed in 71% of those games and BTTS in 86%. Feyenoord’s home Over 3.5 sits at 57%. The data argues for an open contest with Feyenoord’s quality ultimately breaking through.</p> <h3>Momentum and Psychological Angles</h3> <p>Feyenoord returned to winning ways at Telstar after a wobble against NEC and Go Ahead. The spine remains intact despite a long injury list: Wellenreuther, Ahmedhodzic, Watanabe, Timber and Ueda should all start, with Anis Hadj Moussa giving directness wide. PEC are buoyed by a 2-1 win over Heerenveen and a draw at Groningen, but their cup defeat to AZ reminded everyone of their defensive fragility.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Expect Feyenoord to dominate the ball, push full-backs on and service Ayase Ueda early and often. Quinten Timber and Luciano Valente knit play between lines, while Hadj Moussa can isolate his full-back and drive into the box. PEC will sit compact in a 4-3-3/4-5-1, then break through Kaj de Rooij and Shola Shoretire, looking for Koen Kostons’ movement on the first line.</p> <p>Game state matters: Feyenoord defend a lead at home at 62% and have superior control metrics (time leading 53%). PEC’s away lead-defending rate is just 25%, a red flag if they strike first; they’ve repeatedly lost control of winning positions away from home.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Why Late Action Is Likely</h3> <p>Feyenoord’s goals skew later (average minute scored 49; conceded 57), and they’ve conceded six times from 76–90 minutes overall. PEC’s away profile shows heavy first-half volatility (GA 12 in 1st half), but they still ship late (three GA 76–90), and fatigue under pressure at De Kuip is a risk. The second half should be the higher-event period, lining up with the league’s late-goal tendencies.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Ayase Ueda (Feyenoord): 14 league goals, 40% of team output; last scored Nov 30. First goalscorer value at 4.00 given Fey score first 64% overall.</li> <li>Anis Hadj Moussa (Feyenoord): 5 league goals, 3 assists; relentless dribbling volume and penalty-box touches.</li> <li>Koen Kostons (PEC): 6 league goals (33% of team); if PEC score, he’s the most likely source.</li> <li>Thijs Oosting (PEC): box-arriving threat, scored vs Heerenveen and Groningen; helps transitions click.</li> </ul> <h3>Numbers vs Market: Where The Value Is</h3> <p>The market prices Feyenoord short at 1.17 ML, fairly reflecting the quality gulf. The edge lies in totals and BTTS: Over 3.5 at 1.83 and BTTS at 1.85 understate PEC’s away chaos profile (Over 3.5 71%, BTTS 86%). “Feyenoord & BTTS” at 2.30 suits a likely 3-1 or 4-1 pattern. HT/FT Home/Home at 1.53 also aligns with Feyenoord leading at half in 71% of home matches and PEC trailing at half in 57% away.</p> <h3>Injuries and Lineups</h3> <p>Feyenoord have several absentees (Sauer, Nieuwkoop, Trauner and others), but the core remains. PEC are without Jasper Schendelaar and Odysseus Velanas; Tom de Graaff is expected in goal. Despite PEC’s upbeat mood, the absence of their first-choice keeper matters at De Kuip.</p> <h3>Forecast</h3> <p>With Feyenoord’s superior attacking structure and PEC’s away defensive numbers, the most probable scripts are 3-1 or 4-1. The Oracle’s card: Over 3.5, BTTS, and Feyenoord to win with BTTS. Ueda to strike first is a live, priced-up prop.</p> </body> </html>
Betting Odds
Odds are currently unavailable.
Odds are provided for informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.
AI Analysis & Predictions
Get comprehensive AI-powered analysis for this match with our advanced prediction models. Our AI considers team form, head-to-head records, player statistics, and real-time data to provide accurate insights.
- Real-time match predictions
- In-depth statistical analysis
- Live odds monitoring
- Expert betting insights