Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam
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<html> <head><title>Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam: Derby Day Data and Value Plays</title></head> <body> <h2>Rotterdam Derby: Feyenoord’s early pressure vs Sparta’s late bite</h2> <p>Feyenoord welcome Sparta Rotterdam to De Kuip with the hosts chasing PSV and the visitors eyeing European contention. The narrative is clear: Feyenoord’s early-half authority meets a Sparta side that has found defensive solidity of late but struggles to recover from deficits, especially away.</p> <h3>Team news and tactical notes</h3> <p>Feyenoord carry a defensive injury load: Gernot Trauner (Achilles), Bart Nieuwkoop (groin), Thomas Beelen (leg) and others are out, with Gijs Smal (hip) a doubt. Oussama Targhalline is at AFCON, but Anis Hadj Moussa returns to add wing thrust alongside the league’s in-form spearhead, Ayase Ueda. Robin van Persie is expected to keep a 4-2-3-1 with Ueda up top, Sem Steijn as the advanced midfielder, and Quinten Timber controlling the tempo.</p> <p>Sparta have fitness concerns for Shurandy Sambo and will miss Vito van Crooij, trimming their wide threat. Maurice Steijn’s side lean on the excellent Joël Drommel in goal and the aerially dominant Tobias Lauritsen (9 league goals). Expect a compact 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 hybrid with an emphasis on transition and set-piece moments.</p> <h3>Key match-ups</h3> <ul> <li>Ueda vs Martins Indi/Quintero: Ueda’s movement between CBs is lethal, and Feyenoord’s first-half surge (average first goal at home on 22’) targets Sparta’s weak away first halves (only 2 first-half away goals).</li> <li>Feyenoord fullbacks vs Sparta wings: With Hadj Moussa back and Jordan Bos overlapping, the home side should rack up crosses and corners against a Sparta unit that often allows volume rather than big chances.</li> <li>Set pieces and late phases: Sparta’s late goals (76’-90’ away GF 4) and Feyenoord’s late concessions (GA 9 from 76’-90’) create a live-game wrinkle: if the game is tight after the hour, late drama is plausible.</li> </ul> <h3>What the numbers say</h3> <p>Feyenoord at home are formidable: 2.11 PPG, 2.44 GF, 1.33 GA. They lead at half in two-thirds of home matches and score first 67% of the time. Crucially, Sparta’s away equalizing rate is <strong>0%</strong> with <strong>0.00 PPG</strong> when conceding first; if the hosts hit the front early, they typically control the outcome. Sparta’s recent clean-sheet bounce is real (two league shutouts), but the away profile still shows 1.63 GA and a heavy second-half concession bias (overall 65% of GA after the interval).</p> <p>Totals are tricky. Feyenoord’s home games average 3.78 goals, but Sparta away average 2.75, and their over 3.5 away hits only 25%. Expect a corridor around three goals—with scope for a controlled Feyenoord win if they manage transition moments and set pieces against Lauritsen.</p> <h3>Goal timing and live betting angles</h3> <p>The derby’s flow favors early Feyenoord pressure and a livelier second half. Sparta’s late scoring profile and Feyenoord’s late concessions tilt markets like “Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half.” A live hedge scenario: if Feyenoord fail to break through by the interval, late goals become more attractive in the in-play totals.</p> <h3>Players to watch</h3> <ul> <li>Ayase Ueda (Feyenoord): 18 goals in 18 league games; 41% of team goals and 10 at home. The first goalscorer market is live with his early-run patterns and Feyenoord’s strong first-half data.</li> <li>Sem Steijn (Feyenoord): 7 league goals, finds pockets between lines; his timing dovetails with Ueda’s movement.</li> <li>Joël Drommel (Sparta): 78 saves already; if Sparta stay in it, it will be because Drommel’s numbers hold.</li> <li>Tobias Lauritsen (Sparta): Aerial threat and penalties; any Sparta route back likely involves him.</li> </ul> <h3>Market perspective and value</h3> <p>Books price Feyenoord around 1.37 to win—fair. The better value lies in derivatives: First Half Winner (1.75) is supported by split stats; “Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half” (1.90) rides consistent timing patterns; corners over 10.5 (1.83) leverages systemic volume in both sides’ matches. For a bigger swing, “Feyenoord & Under 3.5” (2.75) captures the under-lean from Sparta’s away profile while respecting Feyenoord’s win probability.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>With De Kuip behind them and the data leaning heavily into early control, Feyenoord should boss the first half and carry the derby. Sparta’s best route is surviving the initial press and exploiting the match’s final quarter. If Feyenoord score first—as expected—the chances of a home victory rise sharply.</p> </body> </html>
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