Roda vs Dordrecht
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<html> <head><title>Roda JC vs FC Dordrecht – Match Preview, Odds and Value Bets</title></head> <body> <h2>Form, Stakes and Context</h2> <p>Roda JC host FC Dordrecht in Kerkrade with the hosts under pressure to restart a promotion push. Roda sit fourth with 27 points (7-6-3), but a four-match winless stretch has cooled early-season optimism. Dordrecht, 11th on 21 points (5-6-5), have steadied with consecutive draws but haven’t solved a declining attack over the last month. The evening is forecast mild and dry — perfect for a rhythm-based Eerste Divisie contest.</p> <h3>Venue Dynamics and Style Matchup</h3> <p>Roda are robust at Parkstad: 3W-4D-1L, 1.63 PPG at home with 1.88 goals scored and just 1.13 conceded. They’ve kept a clean sheet in half of their home matches, an elite clip in this league. Dordrecht’s away numbers are respectable — 1.50 PPG, 1.38 GF and 1.38 GA — but their away “both teams to score” rate is only 38%, reflecting a cautious mid-block approach that can easily flip to a deep counter setup when under pressure.</p> <h3>Recent Trajectory</h3> <p>Roda’s last eight show slightly lower points return, but the underlying trend is positive: goals for up 11%, goals against down 9%. The 0-4 loss at ADO is an outlier inside a run of three draws in four. Dordrecht’s last eight are trending the wrong way: 1.13 PPG with goals scored down to 1.00. They’ve drawn with Vitesse (1-1) and Jong Ajax (0-0), but a 0-1 home loss to Almere highlights their current creativity issue.</p> <h3>Key Individuals</h3> <p>Roda lean on Anthony van den Hurk (8 goals) to finish and Michael Breij (6) to link and threaten from half-spaces. The fullbacks — Jay Kruiver and Cain Seedorf — provide width and crossing volume, while Marco Tol and Dario van den Buijs anchor the back line in front of Justin Treichel (7.14 rating). Dordrecht’s hopes rest with Yannick Eduardo (8 goals), supported by Joep van der Sluijs and Joshua Pynadath. The away side’s wing play is direct, but their chance quality has dipped recently.</p> <h3>Tactical Threads to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Second-half swing: Both teams score more after the break (Roda 59% of GF in 2H; Dordrecht 58%). Expect tempo to rise and late chances to multiply.</li> <li>Game state: Roda’s time trailing at home is just 9%. Dordrecht’s lead-defending rate is a concern (45% overall), making them vulnerable if Roda strike first.</li> <li>Set pieces and crosses: Roda’s fullbacks push high; Dordrecht’s back line (Drakpe, Woudenberg, Hilton) must defend the box cleanly against van den Hurk’s movement.</li> </ul> <h3>Market Assessment and Value</h3> <p>Books price the Over 2.5 at 1.57, but Roda’s home Over 2.5 rate is only 38% (Dordrecht away 62%), producing mixed signals. The sharper angle is BTTS No at 2.40: Roda’s home clean sheets (50%) and Dordrecht’s away fail-to-score rate (38%) tilt the numbers. With Roda’s defensive trend improving over the last eight, a Dordrecht blank is plausible.</p> <p>Given Roda’s high draw frequency, the safer positional stance than moneyline is Roda Draw No Bet (Asian 0) at 1.57. This respects Dordrecht’s decent away record while recognizing Roda’s superiority and the minimal time they spend behind at home.</p> <p>The goal-timing profile screams Second Half to be highest scoring (1.91). Both sides build into matches and carry late threat, especially if the first-half pattern is controlled and cagey.</p> <p>Finally, corners: Dordrecht matches average 13.0 corners, Roda home 11.38. Over 10.5 corners (1.92) aligns with both teams’ wing use and crossing patterns, particularly with the hosts’ overlapping fullbacks.</p> <h3>Projected Flow</h3> <p>Expect Roda to control territory and entries, with van den Hurk and Breij forcing Dordrecht deeper. If the hosts score first, Dordrecht’s weak lead-defending metrics won’t matter — the onus shifts to their transition game, where they’ve lacked incision lately. A 0-0 or 1-0 at the half is plausible, opening into a more eventful second half as spaces appear. The clean-sheet angle on Roda fits this game script.</p> <h3>Best Bets Summary</h3> <ul> <li>BTTS – No (2.40): Best value, anchored by venue splits and recent attacking form dip for Dordrecht.</li> <li>Roda DNB (1.57): Strong structural protection against the home draw trend.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd (1.91): Supported by both teams’ timing splits.</li> <li>Over 10.5 Corners (1.92): Stylistic matchups and historic corner averages back the over.</li> <li>Long-shot: Correct Score 2-0 (10.00) for small stakes in line with primary angle.</li> </ul> <p>The Oracle’s lean: Roda to reassert at home through control and defensive solidity, with the second half deciding the margins.</p> </body> </html>
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