Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport
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<html> <head><title>FC Dordrecht vs Helmond Sport: Betting Preview and Tactical Analysis</title></head> <body> <h2>Match Overview</h2> <p>FC Dordrecht welcome Helmond Sport to the Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion on January 9, 2026. The Oracle notes that while sentiment edges toward a home result, the sharper angles lie in Helmond’s poor away scoring splits and the game’s late-goal profile.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <ul> <li>League table: Dordrecht 14th (24 pts), Helmond 15th (24 pts).</li> <li>Last eight matches: Dordrecht 0.63 PPG (down 44.7% from season), Helmond 1.00 PPG.</li> <li>Momentum: Dordrecht on a 4-game losing streak; Helmond winless in 4.</li> <li>Reverse fixture (Oct 24, 2025): Dordrecht won 2-1 away; scorers included Jurre van Aken and Yannick Eduardo.</li> </ul> <h3>Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Dordrecht’s home numbers are modest (0.90 PPG, 1.20 GF/1.40 GA), but Helmond’s road profile is worse: 0.50 PPG, just 0.80 GF with a 40% away “failed to score” rate. Notably, Helmond’s opponent scored first in 70% of their away games, which dovetails with Dordrecht scoring first 60% at home.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Projected setups: Dordrecht in a 4-2-3-1 and Helmond in a 4-3-3. Dordrecht’s front four features dribblers and runners (Rossi, Bae, Carrillo) behind focal point Yannick Eduardo (10 league goals). Expect Dordrecht to press for an early foothold—supported by an average first goal at home around the 22nd minute—before transitions take over in a more stretched second half.</p> <p>Helmond under headwinds: with injuries to Matteo Malasomma, Tim Baltussen, and Dean van Vianen, midfield control has been patchy. The spine—Llonch plus fullbacks Poll/Vos—must handle Dordrecht’s direct running and late overlaps. Out of possession, Helmond’s away equalizing rate is a meager 12%, suggesting they struggle to recover game state once behind.</p> <h3>Key Players</h3> <ul> <li>Dordrecht: Yannick Eduardo (10G), Augustin Drakpe and Woudenberg providing aerial/set-piece presence; GK Celton Biai with a strong shot-stopping profile (69 league saves).</li> <li>Helmond: Michał Łukowicz (9G) is the primary goal threat; support from Lennerd Daneels (4G) and Labinot Bajrami (5G). Pol Llonch anchors midfield, but transitions have been leaky late.</li> </ul> <h3>Goal Timing and Game Flow</h3> <p>Both sides skew to second-half action. Dordrecht produce 62% of their goals after the break and concede 55% after HT. Helmond concede 58% of their goals in the second half and are especially vulnerable from 76–90’ (10 GA overall). This underpins The Oracle’s recommendation for “Highest Scoring Half: 2nd Half.”</p> <h3>Totals and Market View</h3> <p>While the Eerste Divisie is broadly high scoring, this specific split is tighter: Dordrecht’s home over 2.5 hits 40% with a 2.60 goal average; Helmond away averages 2.50 goals with over 2.5 at 50%. Market leans to goals (Over 2.5 @ 1.62), but the value is contrarian: Under 2.5 @ 2.25 given the venue-specific profiles.</p> <h3>Set Pieces and Corners</h3> <p>Corners lean high: Dordrecht matches average 12.05 corners; Helmond 11.52. Market over 10.5 at 1.78 is supported by Dordrecht’s high over-10.5 frequency at home (~67–71%). With both sides employing width and frequent crosses to target men (Eduardo, Łukowicz), expect volume.</p> <h3>Odds and Value Picks</h3> <ul> <li>Helmond Under 1.5 Goals @ 1.53 – anchor play; their away attack averages 0.80 GF with poor recovery when trailing.</li> <li>Dordrecht to Score First @ 1.75 – 60% home first-goal rate vs Helmond’s 70% away concession of the opener.</li> <li>Highest Scoring Half: 2nd @ 1.93 – both teams’ late-goal tendencies align.</li> <li>Over 10.5 Corners @ 1.78 – statistical edge above implied probability.</li> <li>Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 – a contrarian value based on venue splits.</li> </ul> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Lean home-sided game state early, with Dordrecht more likely to break the deadlock. The best value is fading Helmond’s away scoring with Under 1.5 team goals. Expect the match to open after halftime, fueling the “2nd half highest scoring” angle. A 1-1 draw at 6.50 is a plausible saver given Dordrecht’s frequent home 1-1s.</p> </body> </html>
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