Shanghai Port II vs Quanzhou Yassin
Match Information
Match Preview
<html> <head><title>Shanghai Port II vs Quanzhou Yassin — China League Two Relegation Group Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>Relegation Group pressure defines this tie as Shanghai Port II host Quanzhou Yassin on September 27 (08:00 UTC). Both clubs have lived on a tightrope all season, but the momentum line and underlying numbers tilt toward the hosts. Recent coverage around the league frames this as a must-not-lose for either side, and particularly a must-win for Quanzhou, who remain stuck near the bottom.</p> <h3>Form Guide and Trajectories</h3> <p>Shanghai Port II arrive with a steady uptick: their last eight league matches are better than season averages across points per game (+12.2%) and goals scored (+20%). They’ve just posted a composed 2-0 away victory and, importantly, beat Quanzhou 1-0 in their last head-to-head in late August. Quanzhou’s recent path is choppier—two away 0-0 stalemates show defensive grit but also a lack of punch. In the last three league fixtures they’ve taken only a single point.</p> <h3>Venue Split and Matchup Edges</h3> <p>Venue splits matter. Shanghai at home are middling (1.15 ppg), but crucially they defend leads impeccably here (100% lead-defending rate). Quanzhou away average just 0.54 ppg, concede first in 54% of trips, and when they fall behind on the road they collect <em>zero</em> points on average—an alarming indicator in a fixture where the hosts are likely to control the late phases.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Second Half Swing</h3> <p>Expect a back-weighted match. Shanghai’s production spikes late (eight goals between 76–90 minutes) and they tend to score after the break. Quanzhou’s away profile collapses post-interval: 12 conceded and just 3 scored in second halves. That imbalance fuels the market angle for the hosts to edge the second half and for the second half to be the higher-scoring period.</p> <h3>Scoring Probability and BTTS Outlook</h3> <p>The single cleanest read comes from Quanzhou’s attack: they fail to score in 56% of all league matches and 54% of away games. Shanghai’s clean sheet rate sits at 31%, but the matchup drag on Quanzhou’s offense is stark—limited finishing contributors (Hua Peihui on two goals is their top scorer) and a very low equalizing rate (away 11%). With Shanghai’s lead defense spotless at home, BTTS No is a logical favorite outcome.</p> <h3>Tactical Notes and Likely Lineups</h3> <p>Shanghai’s control phases should build through Zhao Shen’ao and Wang Song, while chance creation is concentrated around Liao Chongjiu and Li Deming (12 combined league goals), with teenager Zhang Junjie offering penalty-box movement and late runs. Quanzhou’s best work comes from midfield energy (Chen Zeng, Hua Peihui) and set pieces through Yu Jiawei’s presence, but their forward line lacks sustained end product. Expect Quanzhou to keep numbers behind the ball and ride spells of compact defending, especially early.</p> <h3>Odds, Value, and Recommended Plays</h3> <p>The market has the hosts short at 1.42 on the moneyline—fair but not a standout value given Shanghai’s home variance. More attractive are derivatives that reflect the matchup:</p> <ul> <li><strong>BTTS No (1.85)</strong> – matches Quanzhou’s 54% away fail-to-score rate and two straight 0-0 away results.</li> <li><strong>Second Half Winner: Shanghai (1.74)</strong> – leverages Shanghai’s late-goal profile and Quanzhou’s 2nd-half away frailty (GA 12, GF 3).</li> <li><strong>Quanzhou Under 0.5 Goals (2.14)</strong> – price is generous relative to their chronic scoring issues.</li> <li><strong>Under 2.25 Goals (2.35)</strong> – model centers around 2.2–2.3 totals; line offers a half-win on exactly two goals.</li> <li><strong>HT/FT Draw/Home (4.05)</strong> – Quanzhou away post 62% HT draws; Shanghai’s late surge supports the flip after the break.</li> </ul> <h3>External Factors</h3> <p>No fresh injuries are reported, and coaching setups remain stable. Weather in Shanghai should be mild-to-warm, potentially overcast—no meaningful disruption expected. The relegation-group tension adds caution early, but the numbers continue to point to a home-controlled second half.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Shanghai Port II to wear Quanzhou down after a tight opening half is the most consistent story told by the data. The safest route is opposing Quanzhou on the scoreboard (BTTS No, Quanzhou Under 0.5) and backing Shanghai’s second-half edge. For those seeking a longer price aligned with the match script, Draw/Home at 4.05 and even a speculative 1-0 correct score at 6.05 fit the statistical narrative.</p> </body> </html>
Betting Odds
Odds are currently unavailable.
Odds are provided for informational purposes. Please gamble responsibly.
AI Analysis & Predictions
Get comprehensive AI-powered analysis for this match with our advanced prediction models. Our AI considers team form, head-to-head records, player statistics, and real-time data to provide accurate insights.
- Real-time match predictions
- In-depth statistical analysis
- Live odds monitoring
- Expert betting insights