Casa Pia vs Guimaraes
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<html> <head> <title>Casa Pia vs Vitória SC: Tactical, Odds and Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Casa Pia vs Vitória SC — Tight, Tactical and Tilted Toward the Under</h2> <p>Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior hosts a high-stakes Primeira Liga clash as 15th-placed Casa Pia welcome 8th-placed Vitória de Guimarães. The mood is mixed: Casa Pia finally snapped a nine-game league drought with a 2-1 comeback at Tondela, but a midweek cup exit to second-tier Torrense underlined familiar defensive frailties. Vitória, meanwhile, crashed to a 4-1 defeat against Sporting and were dumped out of the Taça by AVS, yet their recent away trend remains quietly strong.</p> <h3>Form and Venue Dynamics</h3> <p>Casa Pia’s home profile is stark: zero wins from seven league games (0.43 points per game), 1.00 scored and 2.14 conceded per match, and no clean sheets. They’ve allowed the first goal in 86% of home fixtures, and have been unable to defend leads at Rio Maior. Their attack has bright moments through Jérémy Livolant’s creativity (3 goals, 4 assists), and Gaizka Larrazabal’s surge at Tondela was timely, but the structure still leaks.</p> <p>Guimarães are better constructed for the road than their raw scoring suggests. League away numbers show 1.29 points per game with a remarkably disciplined 43% clean sheet rate and a 0% BTTS rate across seven away matches. Total goals on their travels average just 1.86, and when they do get in front, they’re perfect at protecting the lead (100% lead-defending rate away).</p> <h3>Key Tactical Matchups</h3> <p>Expect Vitória to be compact in a mid-block, trusting João Mendes and Miguel Maga to deny width and funnel Casa Pia into lower-value areas. Without the ball, Casa Pia can be pinned by crosses and cutbacks, which suits Vitória’s set-piece and transitional threats. Telmo Arcanjo’s late arriving runs and Oumar Camara’s penalty-area instincts provide the cutting edge—particularly relevant if Nelson Oliveira serves a one-match suspension following his red card against Sporting.</p> <h3>Goal Expectation: Why the Market Leans Low</h3> <p>All roads point to a low-scoring encounter. Casa Pia’s own home games see Over 2.5 only 29% of the time. Guimarães away see Under 2.5 in 86% of matches, and BTTS has yet to land on their travels. With mild weather and a tidy surface, this should play out as a controlled, tactical affair where the first goal matters immensely—Guimarães average 3.00 points away when scoring first, 0.00 when conceding first.</p> <h3>Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Jérémy Livolant (Casa Pia): The chief chance creator; if Casa Pia are to unlock Vitória, it will be through his ball-carrying and set-piece delivery.</li> <li>Oumar Camara (Vitória): Three league goals, including away strikes and a penalty; his role likely grows if Oliveira is suspended.</li> <li>Telmo Arcanjo (Vitória): Scored vs Sporting; links midfield to attack and carries a threat from zone 14.</li> <li>José Fonte (Casa Pia): Veteran leadership at the back is needed to stabilize a defense conceding over two per home match.</li> </ul> <h3>Market Perspective and Value</h3> <p>Totals markets price the Under 2.5 around 1.53, which still looks backable given combined team profiles suggest mid-70% probability. BTTS No around 1.73 is supported by Vitória’s 0% away BTTS record and Casa Pia’s 43% home fail-to-score rate. The Draw No Bet on Vitória (circa 1.62) sensibly leans into Casa Pia’s home struggles while protecting against the binary away profile of Vitória (often win/lose with no draws).</p> <p>If you’re hunting plus-money angles, Under 2.5 & BTTS No near 1.91 is a correlated value that has landed in 6 of Vitória’s 7 away league matches. For a speculative dart, Oumar Camara anytime scorer at 5.50 makes sense: he’s on penalties, has away goals in him, and the likely absence of Oliveira increases his centrality.</p> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>In a tight, tactical game with few clear chances, Guimarães’ away defensive structure should keep this under control. The likeliest range is 0-1 or 0-0, with Vitória the more probable winners if anyone edges it.</p> </body> </html>
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