Pianese vs Ternana
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<html> <head> <title>Pianese vs Ternana: Serie C Girone B Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Pianese vs Ternana – Cagey First Half, Decisive Second?</h2> <p>Two mid-table sides level on 22 points meet in Grosseto with contrasting rhythms by half. Pianese lean on home energy but leak late, while Ternana’s improved form and second-half punch have powered a mini-surge.</p> <h3>State of Play</h3> <p>Pianese sit 11th (22 pts), Ternana 9th (22 pts), per current Serie C Girone B standings. Pianese’s home profile is mixed: 1.38 points per game with 1.50 goals conceded on average at the Stadio Olimpico Carlo Zecchini. Ternana travel reasonably well (1.25 ppg) but remain draw-prone (50% away draws). Both are within touching distance of the top eight, but neither can afford to drift as Ravenna and Arezzo set a relentless pace at the top.</p> <h3>First-Half Chess, Second-Half Punch</h3> <p>The defining dynamic is timing. Pianese have drawn 71% of their matches at half-time, Ternana 75% away—an extraordinary alignment. Ternana’s away half-time scoreline has been 0-0 in 62% of trips, mirroring Serie C’s conservative early phases.</p> <p>After the interval, the picture flips. Pianese concede late (four goals allowed at home from minutes 76–90; 59% of their concessions after half-time overall). Ternana, conversely, hit their stride in the second period: 60% of their total goals post-HT, with a pronounced surge between 61–90 minutes. This split underwrites the strongest betting angles: a first-half stalemate and Ternana-driven second-half outcomes.</p> <h3>Form and Momentum</h3> <p>Ternana have taken 13 points from the last eight (third-best run in the group), winning back-to-back against Bra (2-0) and at Perugia (2-1). Goals are spread—Ferrante, Vallocchia, and Dubickas have chipped in—supporting a sustainable uptick rather than one-man dependence.</p> <p>Pianese are unbeaten in four and posted two successive clean sheets. But beneath the surface, the last-eight defensive number is up 13% versus season average, and their home GA (1.50) lags the league benchmark (1.03). They’ve also dropped points late (e.g., 90’ penalty at Campobasso), consistent with their 76–90 vulnerability.</p> <h3>Tactical Matchup</h3> <p>Expect compact blocks and limited risk early. Pianese’s early spark at home (GF in 0–15 at home = 3) is balanced by Ternana’s cautious away starts (25% team-scored-first away). Once the match loosens, Ternana’s transitions and set-piece threat come to the fore, while Pianese’s lead protection (60% at home) is only average, susceptible to momentum swings and bench impact.</p> <h3>Odds and Value Reads</h3> <ul> <li>First Half Draw at 2.00 looks underpriced given the 71% and 75% HT draw rates. Market implies 50%; the historical blend suggests a substantially higher true probability.</li> <li>Second-Half angles favor Ternana: Win 2H at 2.45 or Over 0.5 Ternana goals 2H at 1.74 both align with the late goal pattern and Pianese’s fatigue profile.</li> <li>Full-time Draw at 2.90 is playable with both sides spending most minutes level (Pianese 67%, Ternana 62%) and Ternana drawing half their away fixtures.</li> <li>Prop value: Ternana exactly 1 goal at 2.62—hit in 5 of 8 away games (62.5%).</li> </ul> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <p>For Ternana, Alexis Ferrante’s recent scoring and Andrea Vallocchia’s late runs are timely, providing incision after the break. Pianese’s Leonardo Bellini and Marco Bertini are the home side’s primary outputs; set-pieces could be crucial given Pianese’s tendency to settle into low-margin games at home.</p> <h3>What Might Tip It</h3> <p>Patience. This fixture profiles as a low-event first half (heavy 0-0 potential) and a more open second. If Pianese fail to establish a first-half lead, Ternana’s late push becomes the defining pattern. Bench usage around 60–70 minutes could swing the second-half markets decisively.</p> <h3>The Oracle’s Verdict</h3> <p>Bank the first-half draw, then lean into Ternana-driven second-half outcomes. The overall match trends toward a tight finishing scoreline—1-1 or 0-1 feel most in play—keeping the full-time draw and Ternana exact-goal prop firmly in the value conversation.</p> </body> </html>
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