Atalanta II vs Team Altamura
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<html> <head><title>Atalanta II vs Altamura – Serie C Girone C Match Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Atalanta II vs Altamura: Data Hints at Home Edge and Goals</h2> <p>Round 4 of Serie C – Girone C offers a compelling stylistic contrast in Bergamo: Atalanta II’s energetic, youth-driven attack against an Altamura side that has struggled to keep opponents quiet, especially away from home. With ideal weather and no major injury concerns reported in the build-up, the stage is set for an open game.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Atalanta II split their first two fixtures, falling 0–1 at Latina before blitzing Casarano 6–2 at home. The U23/B outfit is known for quick combinations and volume in the final third, but the trade-off has been defensive vulnerability under pressure. Altamura’s first week was grim (0–4 at home to Crotone), yet they steadied themselves with a late 2–1 win over Cavese after a competitive 1–3 loss at Casertana. Both teams are mid-table in the early standings, with Atalanta II 13th (3 points, 2 GP) and Altamura 14th (3 points, 3 GP).</p> <h3>What the Numbers Say</h3> <ul> <li>Home vs Away split: Atalanta II at home: 3.00 PPG and 6 goals scored (one match). Altamura away: 0.00 PPG and 3 conceded.</li> <li>Totals and BTTS: Atalanta II’s only home game hit 8 total goals and BTTS. Altamura games are 3/3 Over 2.5 and their lone away match finished 3–1 (BTTS, Over 3.5).</li> <li>Early concessions: Altamura’s average minute conceded first is 13 overall (21 away), a red flag versus an Atalanta side that tilts the pitch at home.</li> <li>Game state control: Atalanta II’s home time leading is 73% with a 100% lead-defending rate; Altamura’s time trailing sits at 51% overall and 60% away.</li> </ul> <h3>Tactics and Matchups</h3> <p>Atalanta II’s front line, with goals from Vavassori (hat-trick), Cortinovis (brace), and Levak in their home outing, suggests multiple scoring avenues rather than reliance on a single talisman. Expect a 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1 morphing shape, pushing full-backs high and playing through the half-spaces. Altamura tend to keep a more conservative block with quick outlets to Curcio and D’Amico, who can threaten in transition, but their defensive structure has been leaky in early phases, especially against assertive attacks.</p> <h3>Market View and Value</h3> <p>The market slightly understates the combination of home advantage and Altamura’s away defending: Atalanta II are 1.50 to win, while Over 2.5 sits at 1.65. Given the data, pairing a home angle with totals looks attractive, particularly Home & Over 2.5 at 2.25. BTTS Yes at 1.73 is supported by 100% venue indicators (Atalanta II home BTTS; Altamura away BTTS) and Altamura’s “Yes” pricing aligns with the expectation they at least find one.</p> <h3>Risks and Caveats</h3> <p>This is still an early-season sample. Atalanta II’s 6–2 home win inflates their attacking metrics; regression is likely. Additionally, Atalanta have not scored first in either match so far—an odd quirk that could introduce volatility if Altamura nick an opener. That said, Atalanta’s equalizing rate at home (100%) and superior game-state control mitigate this risk to a degree.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Vavassori (Atalanta II): Hat-trick vs Casarano—arrives late into the box with composure.</li> <li>Cortinovis (Atalanta II): Link play and end-product (brace) point to a focal creative role.</li> <li>Curcio (Altamura): Late winner vs Cavese—crafty movements can exploit space behind aggressive full-backs.</li> </ul> <h3>Prediction</h3> <p>With Atalanta II’s local momentum and Altamura’s tendency to concede early and often on the road, the numbers point to a home win in a game with goals. A pragmatic call is Atalanta II to win, with Over 2.5 and BTTS both live.</p> <h3>Suggested Bets</h3> <ul> <li>Atalanta II to win @ 1.50</li> <li>Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.65</li> <li>BTTS Yes @ 1.73</li> <li>Value: Home & Over 2.5 @ 2.25</li> <li>Correct Score sprinkle: 2–1 @ 8.50</li> </ul> <p>Stake conservatively due to small samples, but the venue splits and goal-flow data strongly favor the home-and-goals narrative.</p> </body> </html>
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