Latina vs Benevento
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<html> <head><title>Latina vs Benevento – Serie C Girone C Preview</title></head> <body> <h2>Latina vs Benevento: Promotion-Chasers Face a Stubborn Home Underdog</h2> <p>Early-season stakes feel significant for both clubs, but for different reasons. Latina are navigating with stability and realism, while Benevento – newly relegated from Serie B – carry the expectation of a promotion surge. The matchup brings together a top contender with one of the league’s more low-event home sides.</p> <h3>Form Snapshot and Context</h3> <p>Benevento sit top on 16 points (2.29 PPG), Latinа 13th on 8 (1.14 PPG). The visitors’ trajectory is strong: a 2-0 home win over Trapani followed a 2-2 away draw at Picerno in which they wasted a 0-2 lead. Latina’s recent 0-0 at home to Altamura underscored a trend at the Francioni: goals come at a premium.</p> <p>Both sides arrive with five days’ rest since September 28, and neither camp has flagged major injuries or suspensions. Continuity should see Benevento maintain their Salvemini–Manconi spearhead, which has been decisive early on.</p> <h3>Tactical Tendencies and Timing</h3> <p>Latina’s most striking statistic is their lack of first-half goals: zero in seven matches. All five goals scored have arrived after the interval, with a clear bias towards the 61–90 minute window. Defensively at home they’ve been compact (0.75 GA), and three of their four home matches finished with 0 or 1 total goals in the first half.</p> <p>Benevento, by contrast, erupt early. They’ve scored first in 71% of games (75% away), with an average first goal at minute 18 overall and 19 away. That’s largely down to the sharpness of Francesco Salvemini’s movement and Jacopo Manconi’s instinct around the box. Notably, the visitors do concede more late away from home, which dovetails with Latina’s habit of pushing after the hour—something to watch if the match remains narrow deep into the second half.</p> <h3>Key Players to Watch</h3> <ul> <li>Francesco Salvemini (Benevento): 6 goals already, including a burst of early strikes and a penalty threat. He sets the early tempo for the visitors.</li> <li>Jacopo Manconi (Benevento): 4 goals; offers vertical runs and one-touch finishing. Together with Salvemini, accounts for 77% of Benevento’s scoring.</li> <li>Giacomo Parigi (Latina): 2 late goals this term; most likely to capitalize if Benevento’s intensity drops in the final quarter-hour.</li> </ul> <h3>Numbers That Shape the Odds</h3> <p>The market has aligned Benevento as firm favorites (1.63). That implies about a 61% win chance, which is close to fair given their league-leading profile and superiority across PPG, time leading (58% vs Latina’s 9%), and scoring first. However, the best value angles skirt the straight match result:</p> <ul> <li><strong>BTTS No (1.85)</strong>: Latina’s home BTTS is only 25%, and they’ve failed to score in 50% of home fixtures. Benevento’s 43% clean-sheet rate plus Latina’s zero first-half goals support the “No”.</li> <li><strong>Benevento & Under 3.5 (2.30)</strong>: Latina home matches average just 1.25 total goals; common winning scripts for Benevento are 0-1 or 0-2.</li> <li><strong>Highest Scoring Half – 2nd Half (2.04)</strong>: Latina’s entire goal output comes after the interval, and Benevento concede more late away.</li> </ul> <h3>Game Script and Likely Scorelines</h3> <p>Expect Benevento to assert early pressure, either grabbing a first-half lead or setting field position to tilt xG their way. Latina are disciplined and patient at home, but their lack of first-half threat suggests the visitors can manage risk and grind. If Benevento score first – which numbers suggest is probable – their lead-defending away is decent (67%) but not bulletproof, so a late push from Latina is the primary counter-scenario.</p> <p>Most probable outcomes cluster around 0-1 and 0-2 to Benevento, with 1-2 a live alternative if Latina’s late surge materializes.</p> <h3>Final Word</h3> <p>Benevento’s class, early scoring profile, and promotion focus meet Latina’s low-event home identity. The safer value angles center on Benevento winning without a goal glut and on the 2nd half providing the greater share of action. Keep an eye on official lineups—if Benevento start both Salvemini and Manconi, the visitors’ early-goal probability rises further.</p> </body> </html>
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