Felgueiras 1932 vs Benfica B
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<html> <head> <title>Felgueiras 1932 vs Benfica B — Data-Led Betting Preview</title> </head> <body> <h2>Match Context</h2> <p>Felgueiras 1932 host Benfica B at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos in Round 5 of Liga Portugal 2. It’s early in the season, with both teams sitting in the bottom half (Felgueiras 13th, Benfica B 15th). The hosts, newly up from the lower tier, are targeting consolidation; the visitors remain a youth development side seeking consistency after a mixed start.</p> <h3>Odds Snapshot</h3> <p>Match Winner: Home 2.10, Draw 3.25, Away 3.10. Goals 2.5 line is 1.85 either side. BTTS Yes is 1.67. First Half Winner Draw is priced at 2.10, and the exact score 1-1 trades at 5.50.</p> <h2>What the Numbers Say</h2> <h3>Draw Gravity and Tight Margins</h3> <p>Benfica B have drawn 3 of 4 matches overall and both of their away games (both 1-1). Their away game-state data screams stalemate: 71% of time spent level and a 100% draw rate at half-time (both 1-1). Felgueiras at home are balanced (one win, one loss), with 50% half-time draws. When blended, this creates a compelling angle for both a first-half and full-time draw, especially considering Benfica B’s equalizing rate (overall 75%, away 100%).</p> <h3>BTTS Strength vs Clean Sheet Scarcity</h3> <p>Benfica B are 100% BTTS both overall and away. Felgueiras’ clean sheet rate is 0%. Benfica B’s is also 0%. League clean sheets hover near 35%, so this fixture sits well below defensive norms, making BTTS Yes at 1.67 a fair value entry. The key caveat is Felgueiras’ 50% failed-to-score, but their home threat is real (three goals vs Lusitania), and Benfica B concede early and often in first halves.</p> <h3>Goals Profile: Fewer Than Three Favored</h3> <p>Despite strong BTTS, the totals lean slightly under. Benfica B away have produced two 1-1 results (0% over 2.5 away), and their second halves have been scoreless on the road so far. Felgueiras’ home splits include one high-scoring game (3-1) and one low (0-1). With Benfica B’s draw tendency and flat second halves, Under 2.5 at 1.85 aligns with a 1-1 core scenario.</p> <h2>Tactical and Player Notes</h2> <p>Felgueiras carry a direct threat through Lucas Duarte (brace vs Lusitania) and have supplementary scorers in Léo Teixeira and Vasco Moreira. Benfica B spread their goals—Gonçalo Moreira, G. Oliveira, Tiago Freitas, and Rodrigo Rêgo have contributed—but their defensive naivety remains evident: 0 clean sheets, poor lead defending (0%), and rapid goal swings early on (average conceded first at 11’ overall; 6’ away).</p> <h3>First-Half Dynamics</h3> <p>If there’s a period to target, it’s the first half: Benfica B away have produced two 1-1 half-times, conceding and scoring early. Felgueiras’ home goals skew to 16–30 minutes and 46–60, and Benfica B’s early volatility (average minute scored first away 7, conceded first 6) makes the “First Half Draw” at 2.10 particularly attractive. A niche angle is Felgueiras Over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.93—Benfica B have conceded before the interval in both away matches.</p> <h2>Best Bets and Value</h2> <ul> <li>First Half Draw (2.10) — anchored by Benfica B’s 100% HT draw rate away and Felgueiras’ 50% home HT draws.</li> <li>BTTS Yes (1.67) — both sides at 0% clean sheets; Benfica B 100% BTTS.</li> <li>Under 2.5 (1.85) — Benfica B away 0% over 2.5; draw bias; low-output second halves on the road.</li> <li>Full-Time Draw (3.25) — Benfica B away 100% draws and 71% time level.</li> <li>Felgueiras Over 0.5 Goals First Half (1.93) — Benfica B concede early away; Felgueiras carry first-half punch at home.</li> </ul> <h2>Scoreline Lean</h2> <p>Exact Score 1-1 at 5.50 is the prop that best captures multiple trends: Benfica B’s away pattern (two 1-1s), their 100% BTTS, and Felgueiras’ home variance that still fits a tight contest.</p> <h3>Bottom Line</h3> <p>With an early-season sample, keep stakes sensible. The convergence of Benfica B’s draw/BTTS profile and Felgueiras’ home splits suggests a value cluster around Draw, BTTS, and conservative totals. Monitor lineups pre-kickoff, but unless there’s a major selection shock, the market angles above remain live.</p> </body> </html>
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