Oita Trinita vs Ehime FC

<div> <h2>Oita Trinita vs Ehime FC: Can Oita’s Home Defense Shut Out Struggling Ehime?</h2> <p>Resonac Dome Oita hosts a pivotal J2 League clash as 16th-placed Oita Trinita welcome bottom-side Ehime FC in Matchweek 31. With Oita inching away from danger and Ehime fighting to halt a prolonged slump, the market leans toward a cagey, defense-first contest with the hosts favored.</p> <h3>Form and Context</h3> <p>Oita arrive unbeaten in three, fresh from a 1-0 home win against Renofa Yamaguchi and a 1-1 draw at Fujieda. Manager Minoru Takenaka’s reshaped squad is finally finding some defensive rhythm. At the Dome, Oita’s numbers are sturdy: 1.47 points per game, only 0.67 goals conceded per game, and a 53% clean sheet rate. Those metrics eclipse the league averages.</p> <p>Ehime’s story is tougher. The newly promoted side has one point from their last eight games and has gone ten without a win. Away from home, they draw often over the full season (53%), but recent weeks have tilted heavily toward defeats. Their away defensive record is poor (1.93 goals conceded per game), and they often fade late—conceding 18 second-half away goals versus 11 in the first half.</p> <h3>Tactical Picture</h3> <p>Expected to line up 4-2-3-1, Oita will try to control territory and tempo through the middle, with Gleyson offering a direct outlet. The fullback additions have bolstered defensive structure and build-out. Ehime, lacking standout individual form, will lean on compactness and transitions, rotating bench forwards like Ryo Sato and Ben Duncan as late options.</p> <h3>Key Matchup: Oita’s Back Line vs Ehime’s Attack</h3> <p>Oita’s home defensive profile is elite for mid-table: opponent scored first in just 27% of home matches; lead-defending rate at home is 56%. Ehime’s away lead-defending rate is a meager 12%—when they get in front, they seldom stay there. The more crucial question is whether Ehime score at all: they’ve blanked in five of their last eight, while Oita have two clean sheets in their last three.</p> <h3>Goal Timing: Late Lean</h3> <p>Ehime’s late-game record is alarming: they have conceded 16 goals in minutes 76–90 overall (eight away). The second half is consistently the higher-scoring period in Ehime’s away fixtures (18 conceded vs 11 in first halves). If Oita are to break a potential first-half stalemate, the final third of the match looks likeliest.</p> <h3>Odds and Value</h3> <ul> <li>Oita to win at 1.89 is fair considering home PPG 1.47 vs Ehime’s away PPG 0.73 and Ehime’s 0.13 PPG over the last eight.</li> <li>Under 2.5 at 1.55 aligns with Oita’s 73% under-2.5 home rate and a recent trend of low totals.</li> <li>First-half draw at 1.93 is attractive, backed by Oita’s 47% HT home draws and Ehime’s 53% HT away draws.</li> <li>Most compelling: Ehime under 0.5 team goals at 2.12. Oita’s clean sheets and Ehime’s recent scoring drought combine for strong value with a safety edge (covers 0-0).</li> </ul> <h3>Scorecast and Prop Angles</h3> <p>The 1-0 Oita correct score at 5.00 matches both sides’ patterns: Oita’s common home scorelines include 1-0 (20%) and 0-0 (27%), while Ehime’s blunt attack and late collapses suggest a tight home win or a stalemate. If you prefer period markets, “Second Half – Highest Scoring Half” at 2.11 is supported by Ehime’s late concessions.</p> <h3>Team News and Sentiment</h3> <p>With no major injuries flagged, Oita’s likely XI remains stable, headlined by Gleyson and a reinforced defensive line. Ehime travel with continuity but limited top-end threat. Local sentiment pegs Oita as favorites in a low-scoring home tilt, while Ehime’s priority is damage control and nicking something on the break.</p> <h3>Verdict</h3> <p>Expect an Oita-controlled, methodical game with few chances. The data-driven edge is on Ehime failing to score and a first-half deadlock, with Oita the likelier winners after the interval. Recommended angles: Ehime under 0.5 team goals (2.12), First Half Draw (1.93), Under 2.5 (1.55), and Oita to win (1.89). For a higher-return sprinkle, Oita 1-0 (5.00) fits the statistical profile.</p> </div>